Glossary

Active large-scale armed conflict — major casualties and disruption.

Frequent incidents and rising indicators across multiple data sources.

Active armed clashes or large-scale escalation observed.

Stable region — no active armed conflict; routine reporting only.

Tensions present; some incidents but no sustained fighting.

Trade or arms embargo imposed on another actor.

Public communication or official remarks.

A formal request or appeal between governments.

Statement signaling willingness to cooperate.

Formal consultations, meetings, or negotiations.

Sign agreements, host visits, or coordinate diplomatically.

Provide aid, share resources, or cooperate economically.

Supply humanitarian, economic, or military assistance.

Concede, ease sanctions, or release detainees.

Investigate, monitor, or formally inquire.

Issue demands or ultimatums.

Criticise, accuse, or formally protest.

Reject demands, agreements, or proposals.

Issue threats — sanctions, military action, or other coercion.

Public demonstrations, rallies, or strikes.

Show of force — exercises, mobilisations, or displays.

Police forces placed on heightened alert status.

Military forces placed on heightened alert status.

Mobilise reserves or activate armed forces.

Conduct a military exercise or visible show of force.

Downgrade or sever diplomatic/economic relations.

Recall ambassadors or close embassies.

Use coercion — arrests, expulsions, or seizures.

Confiscate, destroy, or damage property and assets.

Block routes, ports, or movement to deny access.

Arrest individuals or detain them legally.

Expel persons or deport from the country.

Crackdowns, beatings, or violent suppression of dissent.

Bombings, assassinations, kidnappings, or terror attacks.

Kidnapping, hijacking, or hostage-taking.

Beatings, sexual violence, or torture.

Suicide-bombing attack.

Bombing, car bomb, or improvised explosive device attack.

Use civilians as human shields.

Targeted killing of a specific individual.

Conventional armed combat between organised forces.

Military forces enforce a blockade.

Military occupation of territory.

Combat using small arms and light weapons.

Combat using artillery, tanks, or armoured vehicles.

Airstrikes, missile, or drone attacks.

Break an existing ceasefire or truce.

Mass violence — ethnic cleansing or large-scale killing.

Forced mass deportation or expulsion of populations.

Mass killings or massacres.

Forced removal of an ethnic group.

Chemical, biological, or nuclear weapon use.

Business / private-sector actor.

China (country actor code).

Civilian population or non-combatants.

Criminal actors or organised crime.

Students, teachers, or education sector.

Egypt (country actor code).

Political or economic elites.

France (country actor code).

Germany (country actor code).

State or government actor.

Healthcare workers or health institutions.

India (country actor code).

Intergovernmental organisation (UN, EU, AU, etc.).

Iran (country actor code).

Iraq (country actor code).

Israel (country actor code).

Japan (country actor code).

Jewish community or population (CAMEO group code).

Courts, judges, judicial actors.

Workers or labour groups.

Lebanon (country actor code).

Parliament or legislative actors.

Media organisations or journalists.

Armed forces / military actor.

Non-governmental organisation.

Oman (country actor code).

Political opposition (non-violent).

Palestinian Territories (country actor code).

Law-enforcement / police actor.

Political party or partisan actors.

Radical or extremist actors.

Armed non-state rebel or insurgent group.

Refugees or internally displaced persons.

Russia (country actor code).

Social or cultural actors.

Sudan (country actor code).

Syria (country actor code).

Taiwan (country actor code).

Turkey (country actor code).

Ukraine (country actor code).

Actor with no specific affiliation.

Generic unaffiliated actor.

United Kingdom (country actor code).

United States (country actor code).

News mentions of arrests or detentions.

News mentions of blockades, sieges, or denial of movement.

Coverage tagged with bomb / explosive taxonomy.

News mentions of pauses, truces, or proposed ceasefires.

News mentions of drones (military or surveillance UAVs).

News mentions of evacuations or emergency relocations.

Coverage explicitly tagged with the Hezbollah terror-group taxonomy.

News mentions of human-rights abuses or accountability.

Coverage tagged with the Janjaweed taxonomy (Sudan-related).

News mentions of killings, fatalities, or casualties.

News mentions of armed forces, deployments, or operations.

News mentioning military ranks/titles (general, colonel, ...).

News mentioning military personnel by function or role.

News mentions of demonstrations, rallies, or civil unrest.

News mentions of refugees, displacement, or asylum.

News mentions of economic or political sanctions.

News mentions of intelligence/security agencies.

News mentions of terrorism, terror attacks, or designated groups.

Coverage about taxing, funding, or designating terror groups.

News mentions of weapons, arms, or armaments.

News mentions of wounded or injured persons.

Apparent temperature in Kelvin of the detected hotspot pixel.

Brightness temperature is the temperature a perfect emitter would need to be in order to produce the same radiance the satellite measured. Reported in Kelvin (typical hotspot values: 300-500K).

How confident NASA is in the hotspot detection (l/n/h or 0-100).

How intense a thermal hotspot is, in megawatts. Higher FRP = more energy radiated.

Fire Radiative Power measures the rate at which a hotspot radiates energy. NASA FIRMS reports it in megawatts (MW). Useful as a rough proxy for the size and intensity of a fire or large heat source.

NASA Aqua satellite — MODIS sensor (~1km resolution).

NASA Terra satellite — MODIS sensor (~1km resolution).

A pixel where a satellite detected a strong heat source — fires, explosions, or industrial activity.

NOAA-20 satellite — VIIRS sensor (~375m resolution).

NASA/NOAA Suomi NPP satellite — VIIRS sensor (~375m resolution).

NASA marks this hotspot as high-confidence.

NASA marks this hotspot as low-confidence — possibly a false positive.

NASA's standard-confidence detection.

Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast — the radio system aircraft use to broadcast their position.

Unique 24-bit hex identifier broadcast by every aircraft.

The radio callsign the aircraft is broadcasting (e.g. 'UAE211', 'RCH345').

Identified as a cargo / transport aircraft.

Squawking 7600 — radio communications failure.

Squawking an emergency code (7700) or in distress.

Origin country is currently a party to an active conflict.

Cruising unusually high — often surveillance or transit.

Squawking 7500 — unlawful interference / hijack alert.

Aircraft circling in one area for an extended time.

Flying low and fast — often military operations or evasion.

Aircraft identified as military based on callsign / known fleet.

Four-digit transponder code; certain codes indicate emergencies (7500/7600/7700).

Aircraft profile matches reconnaissance / ISR operations.

On-board radio that automatically replies to radar with the aircraft's identity and altitude.

Automatic Identification System — radio system ships use to broadcast their position.

A narrow shipping passage (Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, etc.) where disruption has outsized impact.

A vessel that has switched off its AIS transponder, hiding its position.

Aircraft altitude above sea level, in metres.

Rectangular geographic area (min/max latitude and longitude) used to query data feeds.

A -10 (most hostile) to +10 (most cooperative) score assigned to each conflict event by GDELT.

The Goldstein scale rates the conflict-cooperation tone of an event. Negative numbers mean conflict (e.g. -10 for full-scale war), positive numbers mean cooperation (e.g. +10 for granting independence).

Average sentiment of news coverage. Negative = more hostile, positive = more positive.

Open-Source Intelligence — analysis built only from public data (news, satellite, social, etc.).

Signs the conflict may cool or pause.

An imminent diplomatic action — talks, sanctions, recall.

Conflict intensity expected to increase.

Multiple independent signals corroborate this.

Possible humanitarian crisis or response.

Signals are weak or contradictory — low confidence in calls.

Increased cargo/transport activity suggesting preparation.

Weak or sparse evidence supporting this prediction.

Some supporting evidence but with notable gaps.

Shipping or naval activity at risk of disruption.

Reasonable evidence across multiple sources.

Strong evidence across multiple sources.

Forces deploying, repositioning, or massing.

Increased naval movements or posturing.

An imminent kinetic strike (airstrike, artillery, missile).

Conflict and Mediation Event Observations — a coding scheme that classifies political/military events into ~300 codes.

Global Database of Events, Language and Tone — a worldwide computer-coded news event database.

GDELT's Global Knowledge Graph — themes, people, organisations, and locations extracted from world news.

NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System — near-real-time satellite hotspot detections.

NASA Global Imagery Browse Services — daily satellite imagery tiles.

A commercial news aggregator covering thousands of publishers worldwide.

A community-run network of ADS-B receivers providing live flight data.

Really Simple Syndication — feed format used by news sites for headline distribution.