Analysis of Iran / Persian Gulf based on data from 5 collection sources.
News coverage: 126 articles collected from GDELT, RSS feeds, and NewsAPI.
NASA FIRMS detected 1350 thermal hotspots, 14 near key strategic locations.
OSINT: 737 GDELT GKG records, 216 military movement events.
Top conflict themes: CEASEFIRE, BLOCKADE, MILITARY, TAX_TERROR_GROUP, TAX_TERROR_GROUP_HEZBOLLAH.
Maritime intelligence: 92 events — 8 naval/military, 30 shipping disruptions, 20 chokepoint events.
85
News Events
0
Aircraft Tracked
1350
Total Hotspots
738
OSINT Signals
90
Maritime Events
207
Military Movements
Geospatial Overview Interactive map with all geo-tagged events. Click markers for details. Toggle NASA satellite layer via layer control (top-right).
Key Location
Military / Thermal
Cargo
Surveillance / OSINT
News
Maritime
Mil. Movement
Continued military operations — use conventional military force events dominant
90%
CAMEO
216 military movement events detected
GDELT CAMEO analysis detected 216 military movement events, indicating active force posture.
Maritime disruption likely to persist in Middle East shipping lanes
90%
Maritime GDELT
30 shipping disruption events
Maritime GDELT
20 chokepoint events
Multiple maritime disruption and chokepoint events indicate ongoing threat to commercial shipping.
Increased operational activity at strategic sites in Middle East
85%
NASA FIRMS
14 hotspots near key locations out of 1350 total
Thermal anomalies near strategic sites suggest heightened military or industrial activity.
Naval force deployment intensifying near Iran / Persian Gulf
72%
Maritime GDELT
8 naval/military maritime events
Elevated naval military events suggest active fleet deployments or exercises.
Diplomatic channels active but overshadowed by combat operations
55%
GKG
CEASEFIRE theme: 501 mentions
GKG
KILL theme: 195 mentions
Simultaneous ceasefire discussion and kill/military themes suggest parallel diplomatic and combat tracks.
8
Naval / Military
30
Disruptions
20
Chokepoint
10
Port Activity
Iran’s Navy Tells Ships Strait of Hormuz Shut Again, Two Vessels Report Gunfire
US widens Hormuz blockade net as dark fleet hunted across Pacific
Iran and US say the Strait of Hormuz is completely open
US targets dark fleet, contraband cargoes with blockade extension
Six vessels turned around by US blockade of Iran ports
US blockade of Iranian ports comes into force
Iran reasserts control of Hormuz Strait as Trump warns against ‘blackmail’
A Potent Threat in Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s ‘Mosquito Fleet’
India Flags ‘Deep Concerns’ Over Attack On Two Indian Ships In Strait of Hormuz
Fresh Attacks Shatter ‘Open Hormuz’ Narrative as Iran Pushes New Maritime Regime
Iran and Trump Declare Hormuz ‘Open,’ But Route, Mines, and U.S. Blockade Cloud Reality
Splash Wrap: Next generation MSC
Hormuz on 16 April: Dry & Liquid crossings drop to 4; no gas activity recorded
Europe and Asia’s response to 60% Middle East crude export collapse reshapes global energy trade
Tankers and container ships u-turn at Strait of Hormuz
Top maritime news stories for week ended 17 April
Are ships evading the US blockade of Iran ports?
Sanctioned tanker pulls Strait of Hormuz U-turn
IEA cuts oil outlook on ‘largest disruption in history’
US targets Iran’s maritime trade with port blockade
US to blockade Iranian ports from 13 April
Strait of Hormuz control key to Iran’s deterrence strategy
Cosco Shipping says Strait of Hormuz transits on hold
Sri Lanka repatriates 238 Iranian sailors stranded after US torpedo attack
The US blockade of Iran is a gamble. Will it work?
Trump's blockade threat raises risks and leaves predicaments unchanged
Ships Attacked in Strait of Hormuz as Iran Declares Strict Control of Vital Shipping Route
How Trump’s Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Works
Hegseth Again Threatens Attacks on Iran’s Civilian Infrastructure
Middle East crisis live: Iran says ‘fundamental’ issues’ still to be resolved with US amid strait of Hormuz impasse
193
Fight with small arms: Fight with small arms: BUS -> IRNMIL
194
Fight with artillery and tanks: Fight with artillery and tanks: GBR -> BUS
190
Use conventional military force: Use conventional military force: ISR -> ISRMIL
190
Use conventional military force: Use conventional military force: ISRMIL -> LBN
160
Reduce relations: Reduce relations: ARE ->
160
Reduce relations: Reduce relations: ARE -> CHE
172
Impose blockade: Impose blockade: EDU ->
190
Use conventional military force: Use conventional military force: GOV -> IRNMIL
190
Use conventional military force: Use conventional military force: GOV -> IRNMIL
173
Impose embargo: Impose embargo: IRN -> GOV
173
Impose embargo: Impose embargo: IRN -> GOV
154
Occupy territory: Occupy territory: IRN -> IRNGOV
170
Coerce: Coerce: IRN -> OPP
170
Coerce: Coerce: IRN -> OPP
154
Occupy territory: Occupy territory: IRNGOV -> IRN
190
Use conventional military force: Use conventional military force: MOS -> BUS
190
Use conventional military force: Use conventional military force: MOS -> BUS
160
Reduce relations: Reduce relations: SEA -> ARE
160
Reduce relations: Reduce relations: SEA -> CHE
190
Use conventional military force: Use conventional military force: USA -> IRN
190
Use conventional military force: Use conventional military force: USA -> IRN
193
Fight with small arms: Fight with small arms: GOV -> IRN
193
Fight with small arms: Fight with small arms: GOV -> IRN
172
Impose blockade: Impose blockade: GOVHLH -> EDU
172
Impose blockade: Impose blockade: IRN ->
172
Impose blockade: Impose blockade: IRN ->
190
Use conventional military force: Use conventional military force: MOS -> IRN
190
Use conventional military force: Use conventional military force: MOS -> IRN
193
Fight with small arms: Fight with small arms: USAGOV -> IRN
190
Use conventional military force: Use conventional military force: IRN ->
191
Impose military blockade/restriction: Impose military blockade/restriction: IRN -> IRNGOV
190
Use conventional military force: Use conventional military force: IRN -> ISR
195
Employ aerial weapons: Employ aerial weapons: KWT -> LBN
195
Employ aerial weapons: Employ aerial weapons: KWT -> LBN
193
Fight with small arms: Fight with small arms: LBN -> IRN
194
Fight with artillery and tanks: Fight with artillery and tanks: PRK -> IRN
194
Fight with artillery and tanks: Fight with artillery and tanks: PRK -> IRN
172
Impose blockade: Impose blockade: USA -> LBN
193
Fight with small arms: Fight with small arms: -> BUS
172
Impose blockade: Impose blockade: BUS ->
Flight Intelligence OpenSky Network ADS-B data (live). Anonymous quota is small; configure OAuth2 credentials in config/settings.yaml (opensky.client_id / client_secret) for full coverage.
OpenSky offline. The API returned an error:
timeout: HTTPSConnectionPool(host='opensky-network.org', port=443): Max retries exceeded with url: /api/states/all?lamin=24.0&lamax=40.0&lomin=44.0&lomax=63.0 (Caused by ConnectTimeoutError(, 'Connection to opensky-network.org timed out. (connect timeout=25)')) . Last successful fetch will be used if cached.| Callsign | Country | Altitude (m) | Speed | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No anomalies detected | ||||
Aircraft by Origin Country
Thermal Hotspots Near Key Locations NASA FIRMS detections within ~15km of strategic sites.
| Location | Brightness temperature | Fire Radiative Power (FRP) | Detection confidence | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Dhafra Air Base (UAE) | 318.22 | 1.67 | Nominal confidence | 2026-04-18 2248 |
| Al Dhafra Air Base (UAE) | 306.9 | 1.31 | Nominal confidence | 2026-04-18 2248 |
| US Fifth Fleet HQ (Bahrain) | 309.84 | 1.52 | Nominal confidence | 2026-04-18 2248 |
| Bandar Abbas Naval Base | 324.49 | 2.53 | Nominal confidence | 2026-04-18 2248 |
| Bandar Abbas Naval Base | 348.8 | 4.08 | Nominal confidence | 2026-04-18 2248 |
| Bandar Abbas Naval Base | 314.96 | 4.08 | Nominal confidence | 2026-04-18 2248 |
| Bandar Abbas Naval Base | 345.94 | 5.46 | Nominal confidence | 2026-04-18 2248 |
| Bandar Abbas Naval Base | 305.13 | 0.73 | Nominal confidence | 2026-04-18 2248 |
| Bandar Abbas Naval Base | 330.71 | 1.24 | Low confidence | 2026-04-18 902 |
| Al Dhafra Air Base (UAE) | 313.09 | 1.84 | Nominal confidence | 2026-04-18 2127 |
| Lavan Island Oil Platform | 300.17 | 0.68 | Nominal confidence | 2026-04-18 2127 |
| Lavan Island Oil Platform | 304.65 | 1.05 | Nominal confidence | 2026-04-18 2127 |
| US Fifth Fleet HQ (Bahrain) | 299.11 | 2.15 | Nominal confidence | 2026-04-18 2307 |
| Camp Arifjan (Kuwait) | 322.83 | 8.41 | Confidence: 64 | 2026-04-18 557 |
OSINT Conflict Themes
Event Timeline Chronological event feed. Blue=news, orange=flight, red=satellite, purple=OSINT, cyan=maritime, yellow=military.
Lyse Doucet: Under fragile ceasefire, Iranians wonder if US deal can be done
Lyse Doucet: Under fragile ceasefire, Iranians wonder if US deal can be done
Frank Gardner: Why China keeps cropping up in Iran war stories
Frank Gardner: Why China keeps cropping up in Iran war stories
Sri Lanka repatriates 238 Iranian sailors stranded after US torpedo attack
Sri Lanka repatriates 238 Iranian sailors stranded after US torpedo attack
Six vessels turned around by US blockade of Iran ports
Israel backs US-Iran ceasefire but Netanyahu's war goals remain unfulfilled
Why ceasefire deal with US has unsettled Iran's hardliners
Why and how is US blockading Iranian ports in Strait of Hormuz?
Why and how is US blockading Iranian ports in Strait of Hormuz?
Sanctioned tanker pulls Strait of Hormuz U-turn
IEA cuts oil outlook on ‘largest disruption in history’
Singapore stands firm on freedom of navigation
Hegseth Again Threatens Attacks on Iran’s Civilian Infrastructure
Hegseth Again Threatens Attacks on Iran’s Civilian Infrastructure
10-Day Cease-Fire Between Israel and Lebanon Goes Into Effect
White House Declines to Offer Congress an Estimate of Iran War Cost
Despite Cease-Fire, Iran’s Hackers Haven’t Logged Off
Bahrain Charges Intelligence Officer in the Death of a Detainee
How Trump’s Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Works
How Trump’s Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Works
The Guardian view on a ceasefire for Lebanon: Trump has promised a pause. Civilians need real peace | Editorial
The Guardian view on a ceasefire for Lebanon: Trump has promised a pause. Civilians need real peace
European Airlines Face Fuel Shortages Within Weeks
US targets dark fleet, contraband cargoes with blockade extension
Are ships evading the US blockade of Iran ports?
Lebanon thought there was a ceasefire - then Israel unleashed deadly blitz
'Endless fears': Even if fighting stops, the damage to Iran's children will endure
Middle East crisis live: Iran says ‘fundamental’ issues’ still to be resolved with US amid strait of Hormuz impasse
Middle East crisis live: Iran says ‘fundamental’ issues’ still to be resolved with US amid strait of
In Qatar, Trapped Between the U.S. and Iran, War Forced a Reckoning
Iran, US still ‘far’ from breakthrough in Strait of Hormuz impasse
Iran, US still ‘far’ from breakthrough in Strait of Hormuz impasse
JD Vance could yet save his political skin. But it will mean turning on Trump – and soon | Simon Tisdall
JD Vance could yet save his political skin. But it will mean turning on Trump – and soon | Simon Tis
Stabbings, kidnap threats and arson attacks: how the Iranian regime targets UK journalists
Stabbings, kidnap threats and arson attacks: how the Iranian regime targets UK journalists
Iran closes strait of Hormuz again ‘until US lifts blockade’
Iran closes strait of Hormuz again ‘until US lifts blockade’
Greek, Indian Tankers U-Turn Before Hormuz Amid Reopening Doubt
French peacekeeper killed in southern Lebanon
India Flags ‘Deep Concerns’ Over Attack On Two Indian Ships In Strait of Hormuz
More than 3,400 Iranians killed in war - as it happened
More than 3,400 Iranians killed in war - as it happened
Iran war live: Tehran says no date set for US talks, Hormuz Strait closed
Iran war live: Tehran says no date set for US talks, Hormuz Strait closed
Trump's blockade threat raises risks and leaves predicaments unchanged
Trump's blockade threat raises risks and leaves predicaments unchanged
After Iran talks falter, the big question is what happens next?
Three Gulf bound tankers abort Strait of Hormuz transits
Hezbollah is willing to cooperate with a cease-fire with Israel. For now.
Iran reasserts control of Hormuz Strait as Trump warns against ‘blackmail’
Iran reasserts control of Hormuz Strait as Trump warns against ‘blackmail’
Iran military orders Indian ship to abort Strait of Hormuz passage
Iran military orders Indian ship to abort Strait of Hormuz passage
Ships Attacked in Strait of Hormuz as Iran Declares Strict Control of Vital Shipping Route
Ships Attacked in Strait of Hormuz as Iran Declares Strict Control of Vital Shipping Route
Mazzucato on the Iran war’s economic shock: Who pays the price?
Fresh Attacks Shatter ‘Open Hormuz’ Narrative as Iran Pushes New Maritime Regime
Trump and Tehran’s series of mismanaged posts stall progress towards peace
Trump and Tehran’s series of mismanaged posts stall progress towards peace
A Potent Threat in Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s ‘Mosquito Fleet’
A Potent Threat in Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s ‘Mosquito Fleet’
Reopening Strait of Hormuz Would Ease Oil Crisis but Only So Much
Reopening Strait of Hormuz Would Ease Oil Crisis but Only So Much
Iran’s Navy Tells Ships Strait of Hormuz Shut Again, Two Vessels Report Gunfire
Tanker fired on by Iran in Strait of Hormuz, container ship struck
Tankers and container ships u-turn at Strait of Hormuz
What people in power think the impact of the Iran war will be
Six great reads: Iran’s social media memes, an abandoned department store and a 1,200-year-old record of cherry blossoms
Iran says strait of Hormuz ‘completely open’ but sounds warning on US blockade
US extends waiver allowing countries to buy Russian oil – as it happened
Iran says strait of Hormuz ‘completely open’ but sounds warning on US blockade
US extends waiver allowing countries to buy Russian oil – as it happened
Trump Is Urged to Move on Nuclear Site Thought to Be Beyond Reach of Bombs
Trump Frames Iran War as All but Over in Optimistic Social Media Flurry
Trump news at a glance: president celebrates strait of Hormuz reopening, though Iran officials warn they could close it again
Trump news at a glance: president celebrates strait of Hormuz reopening, though Iran officials warn
We spoke to the man making viral Lego-style AI videos for Iran. Experts say it's powerful propaganda
Israelis war-weary but most oppose Iran ceasefire, poll suggests
The US blockade of Iran is a gamble. Will it work?
The US blockade of Iran is a gamble. Will it work?
US blockade of Iranian ports comes into force
Iran war will spur Middle East oil pipeline developments
US targets Iran’s maritime trade with port blockade
US to blockade Iranian ports from 13 April
Amid Conflicting Messages From Trump and Iran, Hopes for Peace Deal Emerge
Amid Conflicting Messages From Trump and Iran, Hopes for Peace Deal Emerge
Strait of Hormuz Is Open During Cease-Fire in Lebanon, U.S. and Iran Say
Strait of Hormuz Is Open During Cease-Fire in Lebanon, U.S. and Iran Say
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is open, but adds that it is still under Tehran’s supervision.
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is open, but adds that it is still under Tehran’s supervision.
UK and France to lead defensive mission in Strait of Hormuz
UK and France to lead defensive mission in Strait of Hormuz
Hormuz on 16 April: Dry & Liquid crossings drop to 4; no gas activity recorded
India’s oil and gas crisis is a wake-up call for transport electrification
Panamax Supply Outlook as Hormuz Faces Strain
Europe and Asia’s response to 60% Middle East crude export collapse reshapes global energy trade
Strait of Hormuz reopens as U.S.-Iran peace talks progress
Gibson tanker report – The Clock is Ticking
Europe Wants to Help Restore Shipping in the Strait. It Just Isn’t Sure How.
Europe Wants to Help Restore Shipping in the Strait. It Just Isn’t Sure How.
A moment of risk and opportunity: How two ceasefires could boost US-Iran talks
A moment of risk and opportunity: How two ceasefires could boost US-Iran talks
Oil Prices Fall Sharply After Iran Says Strait of Hormuz Is Open
Oil Prices Fall Sharply After Iran Says Strait of Hormuz Is Open
Iran Requiring IRGC Coordination for Hormuz Transits
Greek Shipowner Sends Biggest Oil Tanker Yet Through Hormuz
Hold the Champagne: Oil Recovery Faces Weeks of Delay as Supply Chain Shocks Deepen
Shipping Industry Pushes Back on ‘Open’ Hormuz Narrative as Risks Persist
Donald Trump claims to have ended a 10th war – but will the Lebanon ceasefire hold?
Europe Moves From Rhetoric to Planning as Paris Summit Weighs Hormuz Security Mission
What we know about the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire
What we know about the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire
Israel-Lebanon Cease-Fire: What to Know
Iran and Trump Declare Hormuz ‘Open,’ But Route, Mines, and U.S. Blockade Cloud Reality
Iran and US say the Strait of Hormuz is completely open
Sanctions don’t result in regime change. Whether against Iran or Russia, western countries need shrewder tactics | Simon Jenkins
Sanctions don’t result in regime change. Whether against Iran or Russia, western countries need shre
Trump says he might go to Pakistan if an Iran deal is signed there.
BBC in Iran: 'Tehran does not think it has lost this war'
How Pakistan’s army chief became an unlikely peacemaker in the Iran war
US widens Hormuz blockade net as dark fleet hunted across Pacific
‘Ticking timebomb’: Tehran residents return to ruined city amid fears truce will not hold
Splash Wrap: Next generation MSC
Iran VLCC and US govt military vessel sail past each other
Gunfire reported in Beirut as truce comes into effect – as it happened
Gunfire reported in Beirut as truce comes into effect – as it happened
Top maritime news stories for week ended 17 April
Trump news at a glance: president urges Hezbollah to act ‘nicely and well’ as Israel-Lebanon ceasefire begins
Trump news at a glance: president urges Hezbollah to act ‘nicely and well’ as Israel-Lebanon ceasefi
Strait of Hormuz control key to Iran’s deterrence strategy
Cosco Shipping says Strait of Hormuz transits on hold
GDELT Event: 035 involving
GDELT Event: 193 involving BUS
GDELT Event: 013 involving EGYGOV
GDELT Event: 194 involving GBR
GDELT Event: 010 involving GBR
GDELT Event: 125 involving GOV
GDELT Event: 036 involving GOV
GDELT Event: 040 involving GOV
GDELT Event: 026 involving GOV
GDELT Event: 040 involving IRN
GDELT Event: 010 involving IRN
GDELT Event: 130 involving IRN
GDELT Event: 1043 involving IRN
GDELT Event: 111 involving IRNCOP
GDELT Event: 1043 involving IRNGOV
GDELT Event: 035 involving IRNGOVMED
Data Source Quality Green = collected, yellow = stale/partial, red = failed/empty.
News (GDELT + RSS + NewsAPI)
85 articles
Flight Radar (OpenSky Network)
API error
Satellite (NASA FIRMS)
1350 hotspots
OSINT + Military (GDELT)
738 records, 207 military
Maritime (GDELT + RSS + NewsAPI)
90 events
{
"subject": "iran",
"analysis_date": "2026-04-19T09:03:47.969866+00:00",
"summary": "Analysis of Iran / Persian Gulf based on data from 5 collection sources. Current risk assessment: HIGH.\n\nNews coverage: 126 articles collected from GDELT, RSS feeds, and NewsAPI.\n\nNASA FIRMS detected 1350 thermal hotspots, 14 near key strategic locations.\n\nOSINT: 737 GDELT GKG records, 216 military movement events. Average media tone: -4.04. Top conflict themes: CEASEFIRE, BLOCKADE, MILITARY, TAX_TERROR_GROUP, TAX_TERROR_GROUP_HEZBOLLAH.\n\nMaritime intelligence: 92 events \u2014 8 naval/military, 30 shipping disruptions, 20 chokepoint events.",
"risk_level": "high",
"predictions": [
{
"event": "Continued military operations \u2014 use conventional military force events dominant",
"likelihood": 90,
"timeframe": "1-7 days",
"type": "escalation",
"evidence": [
{
"source": "GDELT CAMEO",
"detail": "216 military movement events detected",
"weight": 0.3
}
],
"confidence": "medium-high",
"reasoning": "GDELT CAMEO analysis detected 216 military movement events, indicating active force posture.",
"event_translations": {
"ar": "\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0633\u0643\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u2013 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0633\u0643\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u064a\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0647\u064a\u0645\u0646\u0629",
"hi": "\u0928\u093f\u0930\u0902\u0924\u0930 \u0938\u0948\u0928\u094d\u092f \u0905\u092d\u093f\u092f\u093e\u0928 - \u092a\u093e\u0930\u0902\u092a\u0930\u093f\u0915 \u0938\u0948\u0928\u094d\u092f \u092c\u0932 \u0915\u0940 \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e\u0913\u0902 \u0915\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0940 \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u0930\u0947\u0902",
"ml": "\u0d24\u0d41\u0d1f\u0d7c \u0d38\u0d48\u0d28\u0d3f\u0d15 \u0d2a\u0d4d\u0d30\u0d35\u0d7c\u0d24\u0d4d\u0d24\u0d28\u0d19\u0d4d\u0d19\u0d7e - \u0d2a\u0d30\u0d2e\u0d4d\u0d2a\u0d30\u0d3e\u0d17\u0d24 \u0d38\u0d48\u0d28\u0d3f\u0d15 \u0d38\u0d47\u0d28\u0d3e \u0d38\u0d02\u0d2d\u0d35\u0d19\u0d4d\u0d19\u0d7e \u0d2a\u0d4d\u0d30\u0d2c\u0d32\u0d2e\u0d3e\u0d2f\u0d3f \u0d09\u0d2a\u0d2f\u0d4b\u0d17\u0d3f\u0d15\u0d4d\u0d15\u0d41\u0d15",
"es": "Operaciones militares continuas: uso de fuerza militar convencional. Eventos dominantes.",
"fr": "Poursuite des op\u00e9rations militaires \u2014 utilisation dominante des forces militaires conventionnelles"
}
},
{
"event": "Maritime disruption likely to persist in Middle East shipping lanes",
"likelihood": 90,
"timeframe": "1-2 weeks",
"type": "maritime_disruption",
"evidence": [
{
"source": "Maritime GDELT",
"detail": "30 shipping disruption events",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"source": "Maritime GDELT",
"detail": "20 chokepoint events",
"weight": 0.25
}
],
"confidence": "medium-high",
"reasoning": "Multiple maritime disruption and chokepoint events indicate ongoing threat to commercial shipping.",
"event_translations": {
"ar": "\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062c\u062d \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0636\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u0631\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0634\u062d\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0633\u0637",
"hi": "\u092e\u0927\u094d\u092f \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935 \u0936\u093f\u092a\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u0932\u0947\u0928 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0938\u092e\u0941\u0926\u094d\u0930\u0940 \u0935\u094d\u092f\u0935\u0927\u093e\u0928 \u091c\u093e\u0930\u0940 \u0930\u0939\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0939\u0948",
"ml": "\u0d2e\u0d3f\u0d21\u0d3f\u0d7d \u0d08\u0d38\u0d4d\u0d31\u0d4d\u0d31\u0d4d \u0d37\u0d3f\u0d2a\u0d4d\u0d2a\u0d3f\u0d02\u0d17\u0d4d \u0d2a\u0d3e\u0d24\u0d15\u0d33\u0d3f\u0d7d \u0d15\u0d1f\u0d7d \u0d24\u0d1f\u0d38\u0d4d\u0d38\u0d02 \u0d28\u0d3f\u0d32\u0d28\u0d3f\u0d7d\u0d15\u0d4d\u0d15\u0d3e\u0d7b \u0d38\u0d3e\u0d27\u0d4d\u0d2f\u0d24\u0d2f\u0d41\u0d23\u0d4d\u0d1f\u0d4d",
"es": "Es probable que persistan las perturbaciones mar\u00edtimas en las rutas mar\u00edtimas de Oriente Medio",
"fr": "Les perturbations maritimes devraient persister sur les voies de navigation du Moyen-Orient"
}
},
{
"event": "Increased operational activity at strategic sites in Middle East",
"likelihood": 85,
"timeframe": "24-48 hours",
"type": "strike",
"evidence": [
{
"source": "NASA FIRMS",
"detail": "14 hotspots near key locations out of 1350 total",
"weight": 0.35
}
],
"confidence": "medium-high",
"reasoning": "Thermal anomalies near strategic sites suggest heightened military or industrial activity.",
"event_translations": {
"ar": "\u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0633\u0637",
"hi": "\u092e\u0927\u094d\u092f \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0930\u0923\u0928\u0940\u0924\u093f\u0915 \u0938\u094d\u0925\u0932\u094b\u0902 \u092a\u0930 \u092a\u0930\u093f\u091a\u093e\u0932\u0928 \u0917\u0924\u093f\u0935\u093f\u0927\u093f \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0935\u0943\u0926\u094d\u0927\u093f",
"ml": "\u0d2e\u0d3f\u0d21\u0d3f\u0d7d \u0d08\u0d38\u0d4d\u0d31\u0d4d\u0d31\u0d3f\u0d32\u0d46 \u0d24\u0d28\u0d4d\u0d24\u0d4d\u0d30\u0d2a\u0d4d\u0d30\u0d27\u0d3e\u0d28\u0d2e\u0d3e\u0d2f \u0d38\u0d4d\u0d25\u0d32\u0d19\u0d4d\u0d19\u0d33\u0d3f\u0d7d \u0d2a\u0d4d\u0d30\u0d35\u0d7c\u0d24\u0d4d\u0d24\u0d28 \u0d2a\u0d4d\u0d30\u0d35\u0d7c\u0d24\u0d4d\u0d24\u0d28\u0d19\u0d4d\u0d19\u0d7e \u0d35\u0d7c\u0d26\u0d4d\u0d27\u0d3f\u0d2a\u0d4d\u0d2a\u0d3f\u0d1a\u0d4d\u0d1a\u0d41",
"es": "Mayor actividad operativa en sitios estrat\u00e9gicos en Medio Oriente",
"fr": "Activit\u00e9 op\u00e9rationnelle accrue sur les sites strat\u00e9giques au Moyen-Orient"
}
},
{
"event": "Naval force deployment intensifying near Iran / Persian Gulf",
"likelihood": 72,
"timeframe": "3-10 days",
"type": "naval_activity",
"evidence": [
{
"source": "Maritime GDELT",
"detail": "8 naval/military maritime events",
"weight": 0.3
}
],
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Elevated naval military events suggest active fleet deployments or exercises.",
"event_translations": {
"ar": "\u062a\u0643\u062b\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0628 \u0645\u0646 \u0625\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0646 / \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0644\u064a\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0631\u0633\u064a",
"hi": "\u0908\u0930\u093e\u0928/\u092b\u093e\u0930\u0938 \u0915\u0940 \u0916\u093e\u0921\u093c\u0940 \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u093e\u0938 \u0928\u094c\u0938\u0947\u0928\u093e \u092c\u0932 \u0915\u0940 \u0924\u0948\u0928\u093e\u0924\u0940 \u0924\u0947\u091c \u0939\u094b \u0930\u0939\u0940 \u0939\u0948",
"ml": "\u0d07\u0d31\u0d3e\u0d7b / \u0d2a\u0d47\u0d7c\u0d37\u0d4d\u0d2f\u0d7b \u0d17\u0d7e\u0d2b\u0d3f\u0d28\u0d4d \u0d38\u0d2e\u0d40\u0d2a\u0d02 \u0d28\u0d3e\u0d35\u0d3f\u0d15\u0d38\u0d47\u0d28 \u0d35\u0d3f\u0d28\u0d4d\u0d2f\u0d3e\u0d38\u0d02 \u0d36\u0d15\u0d4d\u0d24\u0d2e\u0d3e\u0d15\u0d4d\u0d15\u0d41\u0d28\u0d4d\u0d28\u0d41",
"es": "Se intensifica el despliegue de fuerzas navales cerca de Ir\u00e1n y el Golfo P\u00e9rsico",
"fr": "Le d\u00e9ploiement des forces navales s\u2019intensifie pr\u00e8s de l\u2019Iran/Golfe Persique"
}
},
{
"event": "Diplomatic channels active but overshadowed by combat operations",
"likelihood": 55,
"timeframe": "1-3 weeks",
"type": "diplomatic",
"evidence": [
{
"source": "GDELT GKG",
"detail": "CEASEFIRE theme: 501 mentions",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"source": "GDELT GKG",
"detail": "KILL theme: 195 mentions",
"weight": 0.25
}
],
"confidence": "medium",
"reasoning": "Simultaneous ceasefire discussion and kill/military themes suggest parallel diplomatic and combat tracks.",
"event_translations": {
"ar": "\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0646\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0628\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0646\u0634\u0637\u0629 \u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0637\u063a\u062a \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627",
"hi": "\u0930\u093e\u091c\u0928\u092f\u093f\u0915 \u091a\u0948\u0928\u0932 \u0938\u0915\u094d\u0930\u093f\u092f \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0932\u0947\u0915\u093f\u0928 \u092f\u0941\u0926\u094d\u0927 \u0905\u092d\u093f\u092f\u093e\u0928\u094b\u0902 \u0938\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092d\u093e\u0935\u093f\u0924 \u0939\u0948\u0902",
"ml": "\u0d28\u0d2f\u0d24\u0d28\u0d4d\u0d24\u0d4d\u0d30 \u0d1a\u0d3e\u0d28\u0d32\u0d41\u0d15\u0d7e \u0d38\u0d1c\u0d40\u0d35\u0d2e\u0d3e\u0d23\u0d4d, \u0d0e\u0d28\u0d4d\u0d28\u0d3e\u0d7d \u0d2f\u0d41\u0d26\u0d4d\u0d27 \u0d2a\u0d4d\u0d30\u0d35\u0d7c\u0d24\u0d4d\u0d24\u0d28\u0d19\u0d4d\u0d19\u0d33\u0d3e\u0d7d \u0d2e\u0d31\u0d1e\u0d4d\u0d1e\u0d3f\u0d30\u0d3f\u0d15\u0d4d\u0d15\u0d41\u0d28\u0d4d\u0d28\u0d41",
"es": "Canales diplom\u00e1ticos activos pero eclipsados \u200b\u200bpor las operaciones de combate",
"fr": "Des voies diplomatiques actives mais \u00e9clips\u00e9es par les op\u00e9rations de combat"
}
}
],
"data_quality": {
"news_freshness_hours": 2,
"flight_coverage": "poor",
"satellite_coverage": "good",
"maritime_coverage": "good",
"military_movement_events": 216,
"osint_events_count": 737
},
"analysis_mode": "rule_based",
"risk_score": 67.9,
"summary_translations": {
"ar": "\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0625\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0646 / \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0644\u064a\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0646 5 \u0645\u0635\u0627\u062f\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062c\u0645\u0639. \u062a\u0642\u064a\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629: \u0645\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0639.\n\n\u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u0637\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062e\u0628\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629: 126 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0645 \u062c\u0645\u0639\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0646 GDELT \u0648\u062e\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0627\u062a RSS \u0648NewsAPI.\n\n\u0627\u0643\u062a\u0634\u0641\u062a NASA FIRMS 1350 \u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u062d\u0631\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629\u060c 14 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0628 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u064a\u0629.\n\nOSINT: 737 \u0633\u062c\u0644 GDELT GKG\u060c 216 \u062d\u062f\u062b\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0633\u0643\u0631\u064a\u0629. \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0646\u063a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0633\u0627\u0626\u0637: -4.04. \u0623\u0647\u0645 \u0645\u0648\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0627\u0639: CEASEFIRE\u060c BLOCKADE\u060c MILITARY\u060c TAX_TERROR_GROUP\u060c TAX_TERROR_GROUP_HEZBOLLAH.\n\n\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u0631\u064a\u0629: 92 \u062d\u062f\u062b\u064b\u0627 - 8 \u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0628\u062d\u0631\u064a\u0629/\u0639\u0633\u0643\u0631\u064a\u0629\u060c \u064830 \u062d\u062f\u062b\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0627\u0636\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0634\u062d\u0646\u060c \u064820 \u062d\u062f\u062b\u064b\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0646\u0642\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0642.",
"hi": "5 \u0938\u0902\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0939 \u0938\u094d\u0930\u094b\u0924\u094b\u0902 \u0938\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u092a\u094d\u0924 \u0906\u0902\u0915\u0921\u093c\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0906\u0927\u093e\u0930 \u092a\u0930 \u0908\u0930\u093e\u0928/\u092b\u093c\u093e\u0930\u0938 \u0915\u0940 \u0916\u093e\u0921\u093c\u0940 \u0915\u093e \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0923\u0964 \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0924\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u091c\u094b\u0916\u093f\u092e \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0902\u0915\u0928: \u0909\u091a\u094d\u091a.\n\n\u0938\u092e\u093e\u091a\u093e\u0930 \u0915\u0935\u0930\u0947\u091c: \u091c\u0940\u0921\u0940\u0908\u090f\u0932\u091f\u0940, \u0906\u0930\u090f\u0938\u090f\u0938 \u092b\u093c\u0940\u0921 \u0914\u0930 \u0928\u094d\u092f\u0942\u091c\u090f\u092a\u0940\u0906\u0908 \u0938\u0947 126 \u0932\u0947\u0916 \u090f\u0915\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u0915\u093f\u090f \u0917\u090f\u0964\n\nNASA FIRMS \u0928\u0947 1350 \u0925\u0930\u094d\u092e\u0932 \u0939\u0949\u091f\u0938\u094d\u092a\u0949\u091f \u0915\u093e \u092a\u0924\u093e \u0932\u0917\u093e\u092f\u093e, \u091c\u093f\u0928\u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0938\u0947 14 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0941\u0916 \u0930\u0923\u0928\u0940\u0924\u093f\u0915 \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093e\u0928\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u093e\u0938 \u0925\u0947\u0964\n\nOSINT: 737 GDELT GKG \u0930\u093f\u0915\u0949\u0930\u094d\u0921, 216 \u0938\u0948\u0928\u094d\u092f \u0906\u0902\u0926\u094b\u0932\u0928 \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e\u090f\u0901\u0964 \u0914\u0938\u0924 \u092e\u0940\u0921\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091f\u094b\u0928: -4.04. \u0936\u0940\u0930\u094d\u0937 \u0938\u0902\u0918\u0930\u094d\u0937 \u0935\u093f\u0937\u092f: \u092f\u0941\u0926\u094d\u0927\u0935\u093f\u0930\u093e\u092e, \u0928\u093e\u0915\u093e\u092c\u0902\u0926\u0940, \u0938\u0948\u0928\u094d\u092f, TAX_TERROR_GROUP, TAX_TERROR_GROUP_HEZBOLLAH\u0964\n\n\u0938\u092e\u0941\u0926\u094d\u0930\u0940 \u0916\u0941\u092b\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0928\u0915\u093e\u0930\u0940: 92 \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e\u090f\u0902 - 8 \u0928\u094c\u0938\u0948\u0928\u093f\u0915/\u0938\u0948\u0928\u094d\u092f, 30 \u0936\u093f\u092a\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u0935\u094d\u092f\u0935\u0927\u093e\u0928, 20 \u091a\u094b\u0915\u092a\u0949\u0907\u0902\u091f \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e\u090f\u0902\u0964",
"ml": "5 \u0d36\u0d47\u0d16\u0d30\u0d23 \u0d09\u0d31\u0d35\u0d3f\u0d1f\u0d19\u0d4d\u0d19\u0d33\u0d3f\u0d7d \u0d28\u0d3f\u0d28\u0d4d\u0d28\u0d41\u0d33\u0d4d\u0d33 \u0d21\u0d3e\u0d31\u0d4d\u0d31\u0d2f\u0d46 \u0d05\u0d1f\u0d3f\u0d38\u0d4d\u0d25\u0d3e\u0d28\u0d2e\u0d3e\u0d15\u0d4d\u0d15\u0d3f \u0d07\u0d31\u0d3e\u0d7b / \u0d2a\u0d47\u0d7c\u0d37\u0d4d\u0d2f\u0d7b \u0d17\u0d7e\u0d2b\u0d3f\u0d7b\u0d4d\u0d31\u0d46 \u0d35\u0d3f\u0d36\u0d15\u0d32\u0d28\u0d02. \u0d28\u0d3f\u0d32\u0d35\u0d3f\u0d32\u0d46 \u0d05\u0d2a\u0d15\u0d1f\u0d38\u0d3e\u0d27\u0d4d\u0d2f\u0d24 \u0d35\u0d3f\u0d32\u0d2f\u0d3f\u0d30\u0d41\u0d24\u0d4d\u0d24\u0d7d: \u0d09\u0d2f\u0d7c\u0d28\u0d4d\u0d28\u0d24\u0d4d.\n\n\u0d35\u0d3e\u0d7c\u0d24\u0d4d\u0d24\u0d3e \u0d15\u0d35\u0d31\u0d47\u0d1c\u0d4d: GDELT, RSS \u0d2b\u0d40\u0d21\u0d41\u0d15\u0d7e, NewsAPI \u0d0e\u0d28\u0d4d\u0d28\u0d3f\u0d35\u0d2f\u0d3f\u0d7d \u0d28\u0d3f\u0d28\u0d4d\u0d28\u0d4d \u0d36\u0d47\u0d16\u0d30\u0d3f\u0d1a\u0d4d\u0d1a 126 \u0d32\u0d47\u0d16\u0d28\u0d19\u0d4d\u0d19\u0d7e.\n\n\u0d28\u0d3e\u0d38 FIRMS 1350 \u0d24\u0d46\u0d7c\u0d2e\u0d7d \u0d39\u0d4b\u0d1f\u0d4d\u0d1f\u0d4d\u200c\u0d38\u0d4d\u200c\u0d2a\u0d4b\u0d1f\u0d4d\u0d1f\u0d41\u0d15\u0d7e \u0d15\u0d23\u0d4d\u0d1f\u0d46\u0d24\u0d4d\u0d24\u0d3f, 14 \u0d2a\u0d4d\u0d30\u0d27\u0d3e\u0d28 \u0d24\u0d28\u0d4d\u0d24\u0d4d\u0d30\u0d2a\u0d4d\u0d30\u0d27\u0d3e\u0d28 \u0d38\u0d4d\u0d25\u0d32\u0d19\u0d4d\u0d19\u0d7e\u0d15\u0d4d\u0d15\u0d4d \u0d38\u0d2e\u0d40\u0d2a\u0d02.\n\nOSINT: 737 GDELT GKG \u0d31\u0d46\u0d15\u0d4d\u0d15\u0d4b\u0d7c\u0d21\u0d41\u0d15\u0d7e, 216 \u0d38\u0d48\u0d28\u0d3f\u0d15 \u0d28\u0d40\u0d15\u0d4d\u0d15\u0d19\u0d4d\u0d19\u0d7e. \u0d36\u0d30\u0d3e\u0d36\u0d30\u0d3f \u0d2e\u0d40\u0d21\u0d3f\u0d2f \u0d1f\u0d4b\u0d7a: -4.04. \u0d2a\u0d4d\u0d30\u0d27\u0d3e\u0d28 \u0d35\u0d48\u0d30\u0d41\u0d26\u0d4d\u0d27\u0d4d\u0d2f \u0d24\u0d40\u0d2e\u0d41\u0d15\u0d7e: CEASEFIRE, BLOCKADE, MILITARY, TAX_TERROR_GROUP, TAX_TERROR_GROUP_HEZBOLLAH.\n\n\u0d2e\u0d3e\u0d30\u0d3f\u0d1f\u0d48\u0d02 \u0d07\u0d7b\u0d4d\u0d31\u0d32\u0d3f\u0d1c\u0d7b\u0d38\u0d4d: 92 \u0d07\u0d35\u0d7b\u0d4d\u0d31\u0d41\u0d15\u0d7e \u2014 8 \u0d28\u0d3e\u0d35\u0d3f\u0d15/\u0d38\u0d48\u0d28\u0d3f\u0d15, 30 \u0d37\u0d3f\u0d2a\u0d4d\u0d2a\u0d3f\u0d02\u0d17\u0d4d \u0d24\u0d1f\u0d38\u0d4d\u0d38\u0d19\u0d4d\u0d19\u0d7e, 20 \u0d1a\u0d4b\u0d15\u0d4d\u0d15\u0d4d\u0d2a\u0d4b\u0d2f\u0d3f\u0d7b\u0d4d\u0d31\u0d4d \u0d07\u0d35\u0d7b\u0d4d\u0d31\u0d41\u0d15\u0d7e.",
"es": "An\u00e1lisis de Ir\u00e1n/Golfo P\u00e9rsico basado en datos de 5 fuentes de recopilaci\u00f3n. Evaluaci\u00f3n de riesgos actual: ALTA.\n\nCobertura de noticias: 126 art\u00edculos recopilados de GDELT, canales RSS y NewsAPI.\n\nNASA FIRMS detect\u00f3 1350 puntos t\u00e9rmicos, 14 cerca de ubicaciones estrat\u00e9gicas clave.\n\nOSINT: 737 registros GDELT GKG, 216 eventos de movimientos militares. Tono medi\u00e1tico medio: -4,04. Principales temas de conflicto: ALTO EL FUEGO, BLOQUEO, MILITAR, TAX_TERROR_GROUP, TAX_TERROR_GROUP_HEZBOLLAH.\n\nInteligencia mar\u00edtima: 92 eventos: 8 navales/militares, 30 interrupciones en el transporte mar\u00edtimo, 20 eventos en puntos de estrangulamiento.",
"fr": "Analyse de l'Iran / Golfe Persique bas\u00e9e sur les donn\u00e9es de 5 sources de collecte. \u00c9valuation actuelle des risques : \u00c9LEV\u00c9E.\n\nCouverture de l'actualit\u00e9\u00a0: 126 articles collect\u00e9s \u00e0 partir de GDELT, de flux RSS et de NewsAPI.\n\nNASA FIRMS a d\u00e9tect\u00e9 1\u00a0350 points chauds thermiques, dont 14 \u00e0 proximit\u00e9 d\u2019emplacements strat\u00e9giques cl\u00e9s.\n\nOSINT\u00a0: 737 enregistrements GDELT GKG, 216 \u00e9v\u00e9nements de mouvements militaires. Tonalit\u00e9 m\u00e9diatique moyenne : -4,04. Principaux th\u00e8mes de conflit\u00a0: CEASEFIRE, BLOCKADE, MILITARY, TAX_TERROR_GROUP, TAX_TERROR_GROUP_HEZBOLLAH.\n\nRenseignement maritime : 92 \u00e9v\u00e9nements \u2013 8 \u00e9v\u00e9nements navals/militaires, 30 perturbations de navigation, 20 \u00e9v\u00e9nements de goulot d\u2019\u00e9tranglement."
}
}